KEY POINTS
- The IMF projects Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to 55% by 2028, citing progress under its $3 billion loan program and fiscal reforms.
- Trade tensions and commodity volatility threaten recovery, prompting calls for unwavering adherence to austerity measures.
- Ghana’s Fiscal Council and stricter procurement rules aim to curb deficit spending, mirroring successful models in peer African economies.
The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has reaffirmed its confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery, projecting that the West African nation will reduce its Debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio to 55% by 2028 under its ongoing $3 billion Extended Credit Facility program.
Speaking at a press roundtable during the 2025 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., Mission Chief Stéphane Roudet praised Ghana’s adherence to fiscal reforms while cautioning against emerging global risks.
“Ghana’s commitment to structural adjustments and fiscal discipline has kept its debt sustainability goals on track. Achieving these targets will stabilize the economy and restore investor confidence,” Roudet told journalists. The country’s Debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked at 88.1% in 2023 due to pandemic-era spending and currency depreciation, has already declined to 72% in 2024, driven by stringent austerity measures and improved revenue mobilization.
According to Ghana Business News, Ghana’s progress follows a contentious domestic debt restructuring program completed in 2024, which saw $10.5 billion in local bonds swapped for longer-dated instruments. The IMF also highlighted Ghana’s reinstatement of fiscal rules, including parliamentary oversight of procurement and a cap on deficit spending at 5% of GDP.
Trade Tensions and Fiscal Discipline
While optimistic, Roudet warned that external shocks, including escalating trade tensions between major economies and fluctuating commodity prices, could derail Ghana’s recovery. “Adherence to program objectives is non-negotiable. Deviations now would risk access to international capital markets,” he stressed. Ghana, a major cocoa and gold exporter, remains vulnerable to global price swings, with cocoa prices hitting a 46-year high in 2024 before crashing 30% this year due to oversupply concerns.
The IMF’s endorsement comes as Ghana seeks to finalize a $1.2 billion balance-of-payments support package from the World Bank. Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam emphasized the government’s focus on growth-friendly reforms: “Our priority is to sustain macroeconomic stability while expanding social safety nets to protect vulnerable households.”
Key to this strategy is the operationalization of Ghana’s Fiscal Council, a body empowered to independently assess budget proposals and enforce compliance with deficit targets. Analysts say this institutional strengthening could mirror successes in countries like Kenya, where similar councils reduced fiscal slippage by 40% between 2020 and 2023.
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