KEY POINTS
- Fitch forecasts slight weakening of the Ghana cedi.
- Gold revenue and central bank actions may limit losses.
- Emerging market currencies remain broadly stable through 2026.
The Ghana cedi has surged over 29 percent against the US dollar this year. It trades at GH¢12.00 in retail forex and GH¢10.92 on interbank markets. Fitch Solutions predicts this trend may not last into 2026.
The UK-based research firm expects only modest depreciation in coming quarters. Emerging market currencies, including the cedi, remain more stable than 2023 and 2024.
Ghana cedi faces modest weakening against the dollar
Fitch projects an 8 percent decline of the cedi against the US dollar. By the end of 2026, the interbank rate might be as high as GH¢11.70. The Naira, Rand, and Kwacha, which are also important currencies in Sub-Saharan Africa, may lose a little value.
The company says that the US currency is still weak, which is a good thing. The demand for assets in emerging markets may help keep regional currencies stable.
Gold prices are likely to stay high since US policies are unclear. High prices are supported by expected reduction in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates and tensions in the world.
The Bank of Ghana will have more freedom to act if its gold holdings are stronger. Actions to keep exports competitive will also stop the cedi from rising for a long time.
