KEY POINTS
- Mahama leads Bawumia by 13.8% among committed voters.
- Voter apathy is high among NPP supporters compared to NDC.
- The economy is the top issue for 70% of respondents.
A recent poll by Global InfoAnalytics shows that John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is keeping a significant lead over Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), as the December 2024 elections get near.
Mahama maintains strong lead over Bawumia in latest polls
According to the poll, Mahama holds 51.1% of all committed voters, while Bawumia lags with 37.3%.
With other candidates obtaining 1.3%, independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) account for 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively.
Mahama’s advantage under an unweighted likely voters’ model persists at 49.3% support compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%.
The research also reveals a concerning trend of voting apathy inside the NPP: just 3% of NDC supporters fit this group, whereas 16% of possible non-voters identify as ruling party supporters.
Furthermore, indicating a serious challenge to the NPP are floating votes and those who refused to reveal their party identification, which account for 38% and 39%, respectively.
A report by MyJoyOnline revealed that Mahama leads by 18 points among those who do not reveal their party affiliations and by a significant 31-point margin over Bawumia (54% to 23%). Among floating voters, this marks.
Remarkably, Mahama has acquired ground among first-time voters, obtaining a 46% to 38% advantage over Bawumia, therefore reflecting a notable change from the July 2024 poll in which both contenders were matched.
On the other hand, Bawumia has experienced a drop in support from Muslim voters—a vital population for his campaign—shedding over 4% since July.
While 19% of people who backed President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 have switched their loyalty to Mahama, 70% of those who supported Bawumia remain faithful to them.
In important areas like Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters have changed their allegiance to Mahama. Mahama is presently dominating in 12 areas regionally, including Bono; Bawumia rules the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East areas.
Independent candidates and voter apathy complicate NPP’s path
Independent candidates Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are complicating Bawumia’s position, particularly in the Eastern and Ashanti areas.
With the NPP aiming at 85% support, Bawumia presently holds 66% in the Ashanti area; Mahama obtains 22%; Bediako and Kyeremanten grab 7% and 4%, respectively.
For the ruling party getting ready for the elections, this split of support presents certain difficulties.
With the economy, employment, and education as the main concerns, the poll also highlights important topics influencing voter attitudes. Following jobs (62%), the economy came up as the main concern for a noteworthy 70% of respondents; education came in second.
Unhappiness is particularly prevalent among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%), with 62% of voters believing the country is heading in the wrong direction.
In contrast, 64% of NPP supporters think the country is moving in the right direction.
